Iranian Madness

It was to be expected. After the fruitless attempts of the Iranian leadership to identify a crack in the all-too-careful statements of Barack Obama, the search for an outside enemy that could distract people from Iran’s internal mess has yielded its result. We’re proud to announce that Satan version II (not as evil as Bush’s America but meaner and shrewder) is officially announced to be the U.K.

The arrest of nine British embassy employees is definitely a well targeted provocation, and one that is not likely to leave mr. Milliband (her Majesty’s foreign secretary) indifferent. Even though five of them have subsequently been released, it’s clear that the dispute will not end so easily.

It is interesting to note that the diplomatic row between the U.K. and Iran is not fresh: it had started already a week or so ago, with the expulsion of the BBC correspondant in Tehran John Leyne, and had already escalated to the next level when Iran expelled two British diplomats, a move which was promptly retaliated by the U.K. authorities.

Where will this end? the eventual target is obviously the new US president Obama, but he is extremely (and rightly) careful to not get involved. While the events unfold, rumours from Iran have it that Ayatollah Rafsanjani, the real mastermind behind the protests, is in the holy city of Qom, trying to convert as many clerics as possible to his cause. How fast he can succeed in this is key to the events: if no major international crisis erupts in the meantime, it could even be possible that Khamenei’s head may end up rolling. This is the major battle that is being played, and the international events will only be the frame for it.

The key question is: will the US manage to convince Britain to keep their head down long enough?

PS: amidst all this mess stands out the fantastic performance of Sweden’s security forces, who allowed protesters to break into the Iranian embassy in Stockholm, and prompting the inevitable request for explanation by the Iranian authorities, all too happy to have scored a point against the “terrorists” that are protesting. Well done mr. Bildt!