Iranian Madness

There are several theories about what is going on in Iran right now.

We’ve seen it all: mass rallies in support of the defeated presidential candidates Mirhossein Moussavi, clashes between supporters of different candidates, crackdown by the authorities (quite mild, actually, in comparison to what it could have been), and most recently, no less than Ali Khamanei, the supreme leader, warning protesters of the outcome of any possible further mass demonstrations.

Some people have evoked the Islamic Revolution, saying we’re going to see another regime overthrow. But this is not likely to happen: the protesters are demanding a repeat of the elections, and have never questioned the system itself. Moussavi himself is a byproduct of the Revolution itself, and has been very careful in abiding to the constitution.

After all, Iran is as close to a democracy as we have here in the Middle East. Even though the vetoing power over presidential and parliament candidates makes the democracy incomplete, pretty much every other mechanism is comparable to Western democracies such as Europe and the US.

No, the youngsters that are on the streets today are not going to change the regime once more. They simply want that their vote is counted. They are on the street because they believe in the system, not because they want to change it. They want the system to function!

And why is all this allowed to happen in a country where opposition is usually kept behind closed doors? this has to do with an internal power struggle that dates back long time. The people are allowed to be on the street and voice their opinion because a large part of the establishment supports Moussavi and, chiefly, is against Ahmadinejad and his suicidal populist policies.

The head of the Assembly of Experts Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, parliament speaker and former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, former president Mahmoud Khatami are only a few of the prominent names that are openly supporting Moussavi. These people are united under this anti-Ahmadinejad cause by mostly economic reasons: they believe that the isolationist and populist policies that he has implemented have done no good to Iran (and mostly to their personal interests), and want to support a candidate that favours a less extremist policy towards the West and market economy.

However, the same can be said of these highly influential people as is true for the students on the street: they want the system to stay, and know that delegitimating it with a rogue vote will only jeopardize their positions and the country overall.

What will happen next? it’s hard to say. The establishment is clearly afraid of this unprecedented wave of protests, and the incidents that we have all witnessed on the street and inside universities have been a proof of the tension that is in the air.

However, they have not made their mind up yet (at least not until yesterday’s statement by Khamenei), and the partial opening to vote recount that has been expressed by the Council of Guardians indicates that not everyone agrees on what to do.

One likely outcome of this political stall is that by performing a vote recount the election will be declared invalid, and people will be called to vote again. However, this would mean that the head of Ahmadinejad will roll (a necessary sacrifice to keep the Islamic Republic alive).

The other scenario is that the government will take a firm stance and protests will be silenced by conceding something to their leaders. However, it is hard to say what will be considered as a sufficient compensation, considering that they allowed events to deteriorate this much.

One thing is almost certain: we will see more of the bloodshed that the streets of Tehran have witnessed lately if protests continue. It seems to be a necessary price to pay at this point.