Iranian Madness

Elections In Iran are not far ahead, and, as usual, diplomacy is at work big time inside and outside Iran. Clearly, the name of the next presidents interests not only the Iranians, but also many other people outside the country.

Let’s start with Egypt: on April 21 they have summoned the top Iranian diplomat in Cairo (the two countries are still at cold war, and have no official diplomatic ties). This surely has to do with Hizbollah and Lebanese elections, as the linked article suggests, but are we really sure that Egypt (largest Arab country) has no interest in the outcome of the elections in Iran (the largest country in the Middle East?).

We continue with Czech (the country that holds the EU presidency until June 30). The Czech envoy in Tehran has been summoned by Iranian officials over alleged lack of action in Gaza during the war. Could this be a sign that Iran wants to make its voice heard in Europe, or simple retaliation against Egypt, an active sponsor of the Israeli invasion in Gaza?

In any case, the Iran-Czech crisis quickly turned into friendship again, sponsored by no less than the Ministry of Commerce.

The case of Roxana Saberi, amply debated in the media over the last few weeks, has been another demonstration that the Iranian diplomacy is fully at work in these days before elections. It seems that the Iranian government is anxious to prove to the world (and to the Iranian voters) that Iran still counts big time in the international political scene. Roxana’s recounts of her time in prison are quite chilling, but we must not forget that her case was quite typical in the way it was handled, as if to say to the US administration: we listen to you, but we fear you not

And of course there’s been the case with Italy. Everyone knows the story: Franco Frattini, Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, had arranged a quick visit to Iran in mid May, only to cancel it in the last minute when Iran communicated that the meeting with Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had to happen in the same city (Semnan) where the latest missile launch happened.

It seems that the Iranians have realised how big a mistake this was. Italy is well known in terms of foreign policy: a friend of the US, but also an independent country, and one that has a reputation of cordial relationship with almost any other country. Frattini publicly announced that the cancellation was due to the link to the missile tests (here is an excerpt of his press release in Italian). However, Iran was quick to deny that, which must be interpreted as a clear admission of a mistake.

How does this sum up? in my opinion, the Iranian government is trying to emphasize the importance of foreign policy in the days that precede elections. But this is not going to give Mahmoud Ahmadinejad too many favours. While he may win the favours of the proudest Iranians and the bazaris, it’s in his base (lower-middle class Iranians) that he must go hunting for votes. And with the dismal handling of a favourable economic situation, and more and more people living in poverty, he will not have an easy ride back to presidency.

(Image by AP)